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国际学术期刊
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国际学术期刊
Land-use and socio-economics as determinants of traffic emissions and individual exposure to air pollution
发布时间:2013-11-2815:23:11来源:作者:Timothy Sider, Ahsan Alam, Mohamad Zukari, Hussam Dugum, Nathan Goldstein, Naveen Eluru, Marianne Hatzopoulou   

Timothy Sider
Ahsan Alam
Mohamad Zukari
Hussam Dugum
Nathan Goldstein
Naveen Eluru
Marianne HatzopoulouCorresponding author contact information, E-mail the corresponding author
 Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics, McGill University, 817 Sherbrooke St. W., Room 492, Montreal, QC H3A 2K6, Canada
 
 
 Highlights

•Generated emissions are influenced by vehicle ownership, type, and location.
•Individuals generating higher emissions experience lower exposures.
•Generated emissions are negatively associated with ownership of newer vehicles, and location in dense and walkable neighborhoods.


Keywords
Land-use and emissions; Emission modeling; Air pollution exposure; MOVES; Individual emissions


Abstract
This paper presents a modeling framework developed for the City of Montreal, Canada, and is intended to quantify two indicators that can explain the spatial distribution of traffic-related air pollution at a metropolitan level. The indicators are estimated at the level of the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) and include: (1) the average level of emissions generated per individual and (2) the level of emissions occurring in a zone as a proxy for air pollution exposure. A regional traffic assignment model is extended with capabilities for emission modeling at an individual trip level while taking into account vehicle (type and age) and trip attributes (road type, speed, and volume). We observe that individuals who generate higher emissions from travel tend to reside in areas with lower exposure to traffic emissions while individuals associated with low levels of travel emissions (e.g. travel smaller distances, conduct less trips, and use alternative modes) reside in areas with high levels of traffic pollution. A regression analysis of the two indicators against a set of land-use and socio-economic variables shows that generated emissions per individual are positively associated with car ownership and larger vehicles, while being negatively associated with ownership of newer vehicles, and location in dense and walkable neighborhoods with high levels of commercial land-use. Meanwhile, exposure to emissions is positively associated with dense and walkable neighborhoods and negatively associated with car ownership and larger vehicles. These findings indicate major inequities in the generation of and exposure to traffic-related air pollution.



Article Outline

1. Introduction
2. Context
3. Study area
4. Methodology
4.1. Transportation modeling
4.2. Emission modeling
4.3. Statistical analysis

5. Results and discussion
5.1. Spatial distribution of emissions
5.2. Statistical analysis

6. Conclusion and directions for future research
References


Figures
   

Fig. 1.

Regional network in the Montreal metropolitan region.


Fig. 2.

Design of the emission post-processor.


Fig. 3.

Emitted NOx per person for the Montreal metropolitan region (island outlined in red). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.).


Fig. 4.

Link-level NOx emissions overlaid on a map of emitted NOx per person.


Fig. 5.

NOx exposure per km2 for the Montreal metropolitan region (island outline in red). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.).


Fig. 6.

Link-level NOx emissions overlaid on a map of ambient NO2.


Fig. 7.

Emission factor vs. vehicle age (at a constant speed of 25 mph) derived from MOVES.


Fig. 8.

Spatial distribution of the emissions vs. exposure clusters (island outlined in red). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.).



Tables
   
Table 1. Factors analysis results.

Table 2. Multivariate regression results for ln (emitted NOx/person) and ln (exposed to NOx/km2).

Table 3. Cross-tabulation of vehicles per household for vehicle model years 1981–1991.

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