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国际学术期刊
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国际学术期刊
Valuation of travel time for international long-distance travel – results from the Fehmarn Belt stated choice experiment
发布时间:2013-12-615:34:10来源:作者:Stefan L. Mabit, Jeppe Rich, Peter Burge, Dimitris Potoglou   

Stefan L. Mabita,
Jeppe Richa,
Peter Burgeb,
Dimitris Potogloub, c
a Department of Transport, Technical University of Denmark, Bygningstorvet 116 Vest, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
b RAND Europe, Westbrook Centre, Milton Road, Cambridge CB4 1YG, UK
c Cardiff School of Planning and Geography, Cardiff University, Glamorgan Building, King Edward VII Avenue, Cardiff CF10 3WA, Wales, UK



Highlights

•The paper presents empirical evidence for long-distance valuation of travel time.
•The value of travel time savings is modelled using a nested logit model.
•We include non-linear effects through Box–Cox transformation.
•We find damping effects in both cost and time – most strongly in cost.


Keywords
Long-distance travel; Discrete choice modelling; Stated choice; Value of travel time; Central Europe; Scandinavia


Abstract
The geographical scope of travel varies from short distances in urban areas to long distances across cities and countries. While urban travel has been widely analysed in the literature, travel over longer distances and particularly across countries, has received much less attention. While this may be justified due to the number of travellers it cannot be justified when looking at the mileage consumption and its resulting environmental impacts. In this paper, we investigate international long-distance travel preferences related to travel between Scandinavia and Central Europe with particular focus on the Fehmarn Belt fixed link between Germany and Denmark to be opened in 2021. To facilitate long-term demand forecasts for the future fixed link, stated preference data were collected in 2011. Based on these data a discrete choice model for long-distance travellers was developed in order to estimate the value of travel time savings (VTTS). The final model, which was formulated as a nested logit model and included Box–Cox transformed travel time and cost attributes, revealed several interesting findings. Firstly, we found damping effects in both cost and time – most strongly in cost. Secondly, we found significant interactions among travel cost and time, and journey characteristics, such as distance and duration. This had direct impact on the VTTS, which was shown to decrease with distance and duration. Thirdly, we found that air travel implies a higher average VTTS, which is to be expected but rarely supported by empirical evidence.



Article Outline

1. Introduction
2. Data
2.1. Survey design
2.2. Data collection

3. Modelling approach and estimation results
3.1. Modelling approach
3.2. Specification and estimation results

4. Discussion and conclusion
References




Figures
   

Fig. 1.

An overview of Denmark, Southern Sweden, and Germany with main ferry connections.


Fig. 2.

Annual trend of average-day car travel across Rødby-Puttgarden.


Fig. 3.

An illustration of a choice exercise in Experiment 1 for a trip between Oslo and Hamburg.


Fig. 4.

Tree structure of the NL model.



Tables


Table 1. Attributes and levels in the stated choice experiment.

Table 2. Descriptive statistics.

Table 3. Number of choices and availability across alternatives.

Table 4. Estimation results for the final NL model.

Table 5. Average individual VTTS in the sample in €/h.

Table 6. Average individual car VTTS in €/h relative to distance and duration of journey.

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