Steffen Bubeck, , Jan Tomaschek , Ulrich Fahl

Highlights
•This study analyses the total cost of ownership of passenger vehicles.
•Electric drive technologies are analysed for several vehicle and user types.
•Hybrid electric vehicles are already cost competitive for many users.
•To foster market penetration of full electric vehicles action is needed in the short term.


Keywords
Battery electric vehicle; Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; Fuel cell electric vehicle; Total cost of ownership; Buyer's premium

Abstract
The transport sector is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide as well as in Germany and is therefore able to contribute significantly to the achievement of climate protection goals. With this in mind and the steadily increasing electricity generation from renewable energy sources in Germany, electrically driven vehicles can be an attractive option to reach the climate targets of the EU and the German government. The target of the German government to have at least one million electric vehicles registered by 2020 seems currently far from realisation. For this reason, this article analyses the total cost of ownership (TCO) of electric passenger vehicles in Germany on a component-based approach and gives an estimation about the further development until 2050. To represent the German market, we investigate different vehicle sizes, user types and drive technologies. Furthermore, we show the CO2 abatement potential offered by different types of electric vehicles. Finally, we analyse buyer's premiums as an incentive to accelerate the uptake of electric vehicles on German roads.

In result, even without governmental subsidies, full and mild hybrid electric vehicles are already an economic option for a wide range of vehicle sizes and user types. To achieve nowadays cost competitiveness for full electric vehicle powertrains, considerable buyer's premiums are necessary. For plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles, the premiums range from about 8,600 to 32,400 EUR2010/vehicle depending on the vehicle size and user type. Eventually, following the future cost estimations, full electric vehicles can reach economic viability from 2030 onwards for many of the investigated vehicles and users.