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国际学术期刊
Planning resilient roads for the future environment and climate change: Quantifying the vulnerability of the primary transport infrastructure system in Mexico
发布时间:2016-8-2210:47:38来源:作者:Xavier Espinet, Amy Schweikert, Nicola van den Heever, Paul Chinowsky   

Xavier Espinet, , Amy Schweikert, Nicola van den Heever, Paul Chinowsky

Highlights

•This study quantitatively modelled the potential impacts of climate change on the primary road infrastructure networks in Mexico.
•The focus of this study was the long-term changes in precipitation and temperature that affect the engineering design criteria for roads.
•These findings show that the North East region of Mexico are highly vulnerable to climate change in terms of both financial costs and relative impacts, with a projected increase in total fiscal cost between 2015 and 2050 that ranges from 184 to 526 million USD and 180 to 580 million USD respectively.
•This study represents an important first step in moving climate change rhetoric and political commitments in Mexico toward sustainable action.
•The quantitative modelling used in this paper highlights the importance of considering climate change in present day financial budgets.

Keywords

Roads; Transport planning; Climate change; Resilience; Vulnerability; Mexico

Abstract

Climate projections predict an increase in future climate variability. To ensure economically, socially and environmentally responsible transportation planning, it is necessary to consider future weather variations driven by climate change. Despite growing evidence that considering climatic changes is an imperative for resilient future infrastructure, management agencies rarely incorporate climate change into decision-making processes. One reason is the lack of tangible information and tools to help predict and plan for future conditions.

This paper presents the impacts and cost of climate change on the road infrastructure of Mexico. Climate change is projected to require an extra national expenditure on road maintenance that ranges from $1.5 to 5 billion USD by 2050. The Infrastructure Planning Support System (IPSS), a tool developed by the authors, is used to quantify impacts of climate change for this study. The results reinforce the need to incorporate forward-looking planning to reduce vulnerability by increase road infrastructure resilience to the future weather changes and provide quantified information for decision makers to consider.

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