文章编号：1672-5328（2012）02-0026-07

王　静¹，刘剑锋¹，孙福亮^1，2
（1.北京交通发展研究中心，北京 100073；2.北京交通大学交通运输学院，北京 100044）

摘要：为了应对城市轨道交通快速建设带来的客流规模及分布的变化，有必要对线网客流变化趋势及成长规律进行研究。以北京市轨道交通系统IC卡数据为基础，从客流量的空间、时间分布等角度分析轨道交通网络化运营客流特征。分析轨道交通新线开通产生的诱发客流和转移客流，揭示新线开通对既有线路客流分布的影响。最后，从线网规模、线位、线网布局等方面归纳轨道交通线路及线网客流成长的一般规律。

关键词：城市轨道交通；线网；客流分布；客流成长规律

中图分类号：U491.1⁺2

文献标识码：A

Passenger Demand Distribution and Increasing Trend over Beijing Rail Transit Network

Wang Jing¹, Liu Jianfeng¹, Sun Fuliang^1,2
(1. Beijing Transportation Research Center, Beijing 100073, China; 2. School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China)

Abstract：Facing the changes of passenger volumes and distribution caused by the rapid development urban rail transit, it is necessary to study the characteristics and increasing trend of passenger flows over rail transit network. Based on the IC card data obtained from Beijing rail transit system, this paper investigates the characteristics of rail transit network passenger distribution in space and time. By analyzing the induced demand and shifted flow caused by the opening of new subway lines, the paper reveals the effects of new subway lines on the passenger distribution over the existing lines. Finally, the paper summarizes the increasing trends of rail transit network passenger volumes in several aspects: network scale, location of subway lines, network layout, and etc.

Keywords：urban rail transit; network; passenger demand distribution; increasing trend of passenger flows