文章编号：1672-5328（2012）01-0026-06

吴子啸，付凌峰
（中国城市规划设计研究院，北京 100037）

摘要：由于出行涉及社会、地理、工程、信息等多个领域并且诸多因素相互作用，交通模型的开发和应用往往受制于数据获取、建模理论、时间与费用预算等现实约束。以郑州市为例，探讨交通模型开发和应用中的理论困惑与技术创新。首先对比传统的基于出行的模型和基于活动的模型的优缺点及局限性。然后，针对交通模型开发所采用的基于出行的建模理论和四阶段建模方法，重点阐述建模的困难所在及内在的理论瑕疵，并探讨OD反推、生成量模型等新方法在传统需求分析框架中的应用。在此基础上，提出交通模型在短期预测和近期预测方面的应用框架。

关键词：交通规划；交通模型；基于出行的模型；需求预测；OD反推

中图分类号：U491.1⁺2

文献标识码：A

Research and Development of Transportation Planning Models in Zhengzhou: Problem & Innovation

Wu Zixiao, Fu Lingfeng
(China Academy of Urban Planning & Design, Beijing 100037, China)

Abstract：Because travel demands are affected by a host of factors such as social economic development, geographic layout, infrastructure development and information technology, development of transportation planning models is often restricted by data availability, modeling theory, time, budget, and etc. Taking Zhengzhou as an example, this paper discusses the problems of theoretical complexity and technique innovation in transportation model development and application. The paper first compares the functionalities and limitations of traditional trip-based models with the activity-based models. Focusing on trip-based and four-stage modeling approaches, the paper elaborates the challenges and theoretical drawbacks in model development and discusses how to introduce new methodologies such as OD estimation and traffic generation model in traditional travel demand analysis. Finally, the paper presents the application framework of transportation planning model on forecasting short-term and medium-term travel demand.

Keywords：transportation planning; transportation model; trip-based model; demand forecasting; origin-destination estimation