文章编号：1672-5328（2010）03-0023-05

张宁¹，叶霞飞¹，刘剑锋²
（1.同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室，上海201804；2.北京交通发展研究中心，北京100055）

摘要：轨道交通车站日均上下客 流量与周边土地利用存在密切关 系，研究这一关系可为国内大城市 轨道交通车站客流预测结果的合 理性提供参考。以东京核心四区 31 个轨道交通车站为研究重点， 详细统计了各车站的日均上下客 流量以及车站影响范围内的容积 率、人口、岗位等基础数据，探讨城 市轨道交通车站日均上下客流量 与相关指标的定性和定量关系。 得到轨道交通车站影响范围内建 筑容积率≤2.3，2.3<容积率<4.0， 容积率≥4.0 三种情况下，单位潜 在客流、单位建筑面积分别产生的 日均上下客流量的指标值，并指出 大型商场等消费娱乐设施对日均 上下客流量具有显著影响。结合 两项相关案例，证明了研究结果具 有很好的一致性。

关键词：交通规划；轨道交通；车站 日均上下客流量；土地利用；容积率

中图分类号：U491.1⁺2

文献标识码：A

The Impact of Land Use on Demand of Urban Rail Transit

ZHANG Ning¹, YE Xia-fei¹, LIU Jian-feng²
(1.Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China; 2.Beijing Transportation Research Center, Beijing 100055, China)

Abstract：There is a close relationship between average daily passenger loading / unloading volumes and the surrounding land use development at each urban rail transit stop. Therefore, studying the relationship is important in demand forecasting for urban rail transit systems in China. Focusing on the 31 rail transit stops within four CBDs in Tokyo, this paper uses the statistics of the passenger loading/unloading volumes, size of the surrounding land use development areas, population and employments at each stop to investigate the qualitative relationships between passenger loading/ unloading volumes and the intensity of land use development. The paper presents the potential traffic and daily average passengers’loading/ unloading demand per land use development unit under three rates of construction levels within the transit stop’s influential area (less than 2.3, between 2.3 and 4.0, bigger than 4.0), and particularly stresses the significant impact of large commercial land use development on the demand for rail services. The consistent results from the two case studies cited in the paper validate the research findings.

Keywords：transportation planning; urban rail transit; average daily passenger loading / unloading volumes; land use; construction levels