文章编号：1672-5328（2012）06-0073-07

袁　健，范炳全
（上海理工大学，上海 200093）

摘要：交通短时流预测是交通控制和交通诱导的基础和关键技术之一，经过几十年的研究已出现200多种预测方法。首先对城市道路交通流短时预测方法进行分类。然后分析、归纳了交通流预测领域的最新研究进展，总结出几类最新的研究趋势：综合模型应用，组合模型应用，时空相关性研究，单断面向多断面、路网扩展研究，单步预测向多步预测发展研究，以及基于反馈的动态预测。最后，展望了今后交通流短时预测的研究方向。

关键词：交通工程；交通流；短时预测；方法分类；研究进展；研究方向

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

Synthesis of Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Research Progress

Yuan Jian, Fan Bingquan
(University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China)

Abstract：Short-term traffic flow forecasting is the foundation and one of the key technologies for route guidance and traffic control. In the past several decades, more than 200 approaches have been developed in literature. This paper first classifies the related research into different categories, and then analyzes and synthesizes their most recent development and progress, including but not limited to the integrated model application, combinational model application, spatial-temporal correlation studies, single-link to multi-link and road network, one-step to multi-step prediction, and feedback based dynamic forecasting. Finally, the paper envisions the trend of research on short-term traffic flow forecasting.

Keywords：traffic engineering; traffic flow; short-term forecasting; methods classification; research progress; research trend