文章编号：1672-5328（2009）05-0021-06

刘秉镰，杨　明
（南开大学现代物流研究中心，天津 300071）

摘要：针对目前物流需求预测中主要采用的回归分析方法和时间序列模型存在的缺陷，运用系统动力学方法研究城市物流园区规划中的需求预测问题。对物流园区系统内部要素作用机制以及与外部经济系统的相互作用机制进行分析。将物流需求预测的影响因素归纳为物流供给能力和区域经济发展两类，并探讨了这两类因素与物流需求之间的反馈。运用系统动力学的理论和方法构建了城市物流园区需求预测模型，将物流需求、物流供给能力以及区域经济发展三者的动态关系纳入其中。指出物流需求预测不仅要考虑当前的资源情况和经济水平，还要用动态的眼光进行系统分析。

关键词：物流规划；需求预测；物流园区；系统动力学；模型

中图分类号：U12

文献标识码：A

Development of Urban Logistics Park Demand Forecasting Model Based on System Dynamics

LIU Bing-lian, YANG Ming
(Logistics Research Center, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China)

Abstract：With respect to the shortcomings of models commonly used in logistics demand forecasting, such as regression analysis and time series model, this paper conducts a study on demand forecasting in urban logistics park planning based on system dynamics. Through an analysis on interactions of logistics park components, as well as the interaction between logistics park and external economic system, the paper discusses the impacts of 2 types of factors to logistics demands, including logistics capacity and regional economic development. Based on system dynamics theory, the paper develops an urban logistics park demand forecasting model while the dynamic relations of logistics demands, logistics capacity and regional economic development are included. Finally, the paper points out that logistics demand forecasting not only need to consider existing resources and economic levels, but also need to make a system analysis from a dynamic perspective.

Keywords：logistics planning; demand forecasting; logistics park; system dynamics; model