文章编号：1672-5328（2009）01-0036-09

何  宁¹    马晓甦²    王国晓¹
（1.南京市交通规划研究所有限责任公司，江苏 南京 210008；2.香港科技大学，香港 九龙）

摘要：为了对南京市地铁1号线开通初期进行精准的客流预测，以规划地铁1号线沿线车站1 km半径范围内的51个交通小区为研究重点，进行了5类个人出行调查，利用四阶段法建立交通模型进行预测分析。在交通方式预测阶段，利用交通意向调查数据建立了轨道交通转移率模型，得到轨道交通OD预测结果。最后，将预测结果与实际客流进行比较，说明客流预测精度较好，验证了所使用的出行调查和模型方法的合理和有效性。

关键词：交通规划；轨道交通；客流预测；交通调查；四阶段模型

中图分类号：U491.1⁺4

文献标识码：A

Nanjing Subway Line 1 Passenger Forecasting for the Opening Period

He Ning1, Ma Xiaosu2 and Wang Guoxiao1
(1.Nanjing Urban Transportation Planning Research Institute Ltd., Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, China; 2.Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China)

Abstract：In order to obtain accurate volumes forecasting for initial operation phase of subway line 1 in Nanjing, this paper, focusing on 51 traffic zones within 2 kilometers around rail stations along the proposed line, and based on a personal travel survey of 5 classifications, establishes a 4-step model to forecast travel demands. During mode-split, a transit transfer sub-model is developed based on SP survey data, through which the transit OD forecasting results are obtained. Finally, a comparison between model outputs and existing volume counts is conducted to verify the accuracy, as well as the rationality and efficiency of the survey methods and the models used in this project.

Keywords：transportation planning; rail transit; passenger volumes forecasting; person trip survey; 4-step model