文章编号：1672-5328（2009）01-0020-06

贺崇明    马小毅
（广州市交通规划研究所，广东 广州 510030）

摘要：及时总结城市自身的轨道交通成长规律和客流特征，有助于提高客流预测的准确性。根据广州市已开通的4条轨道交通线路的运营资料，对轨道交通从单线向网络转变过程中的成长规律和客流特征进行分析。并将这4条轨道交通线路的预测结果与其现状特征进行了对比，解析预测结果存在差异的原因。最后，建议制定相应的制度，鼓励轨道交通建设先行的城市定时整理和总结相关特征、规律，并提供交流平台，为我国轨道交通客流预测水平的提高奠定基础。

关键词：交通规划；轨道交通；客流预测；成长规律；客流特征

中图分类号：U491.1⁺4

文献标识码：A

Study on Development of Rail Transit Network in Guangzhou

He Chongming and Ma Xiaoyi
(Guangzhou Transport Planning Research Institute, Guangzhou 510030, Guangdong, China)

Abstract：A timely review of development trends and volumes characteristics of rail transit system could result in a more accurate forecasting. According to the operation data of the four existing rail transit lines in Guangzhou, this paper analyzes the development trends and volumes characteristics of rail transit system which has extended from a single line to a network. Based on a comparison of forecasting results and existing characteristics of the above 4 rail lines, the causes of forecasting errors are analyzed. Finally, the paper suggests that relevant system could help summarize characteristics and patterns of existing rail transit lines regularly. Meanwhile, a platform for communication is also needed to promote passenger volumes forecasting.

Keywords：transportation planning; rail transit; passenger volumes forecasting; development trends; characteristics of passenger volumes