文章编号：1672-5328（2009）01-0013-07

陈必壮    沈云樟    王忠强    张  珏
（上海市城市综合交通规划研究所，上海 200040）

摘要：加强城市轨道交通客流预测理论方法的研究是提高客流预测准确性的重要手段之一。结合过去20年上海市轨道交通发展的实践经验和教训，总结了影响轨道交通客流预测精度的因素。对轨道交通客流预测的理论、方法和参数进行了深入研究，重点分析了客流预测在理论研究和模型方法改进方面应注意的问题和研究的方向，并指出客流预测参数取值存在的问题。最后，提出在预测技术方面未来的研究方向，以提高轨道交通客流预测的准确性。

关键词：交通规划；轨道交通；客流预测；交通模型

中图分类号：U491.1⁺4

文献标识码：A

Rail Transit Passenger Forecasting: a theoretical study in Shanghai

Chen Bizhuang, Shen Yunzhang, Wang Zhongqiang and Zhang Jue
(Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute, Shanghai 200040, China)

Abstract：It is one of the important measures to enhance theory and approaches research of passenger volumes forecasting of rail transit for improving forecasting accuracy. In line with practice and lessons in rail transit development in the past 20 years in Shanghai, this paper summarizes the key factors impacting the accuracy of volumes forecasting. Through a close look at theories, approaches and parameters of volumes forecasting, the paper identifies problems that deserve attention in improving forecasting theories and approaches, and their research directions, along with problems in existing parameters values. Finally, the paper provides research directions in forecasting technology to improve the accuracy of volumes forecasting.

Keywords：transportation planning; rail transit; passenger volume forecasting; transportation model