文章编号：1672-5328（2009）06-0059-07

冉江宇，过秀成，陈永茂
（东南大学交通学院，江苏南京210096）

摘要：在回顾已有停车需求预测方法的基础上，对泊位 供给和需求重新进行分类，明确了中心城区停车泊位需 求预测的重点。着重探讨了交通政策、泊位共享策略两 个因素对停车需求的影响，明确了二者在停车需求预测 流程中的作用。结合综合交通规划预测数据，最终形成 中心城区停车泊位需求预测框架。以南京市中心城区公 共停车场为例，运用这一思路对其泊位需求进行预测，得 到不同分区的公共停车场和配建停车场泊位需求数量。

关键词：交通规划；停车规划；泊位需求预测；框架；交通 政策；停车共享策略

中图分类号：U491.7

文献标识码：A

A Framework for CBD Parking Demand Forecasting

RAN Jiang-yu, GUO Xiu-cheng, CHEN Yong-mao
(Transportation College of Southeast University, Nanjing Jiangsu 210096, China)

Abstract：Through a review of the existing methodology for parking demand forecasting, this paper clarifies the keynotes for parking demand forecasting in a central business district (CBD) based on a new classification of parking supply and demand. The paper stresses the influences of transportation policies and parking-space-sharing strategies on parking demand, and identifies their functions in the parking demand forecasting process. A framework is established to forecast CBD parking demand with comprehensive transportation planning and forecasting data. As an example, the framework is applied to CDB parking demand forecasting in Nanjing, yielding future parking space numbers for public and affiliated parking facilities in different areas.

Keywords：transportation planning; parking planning; parking demand forecasting; framework; transportation policies; parking-space-sharing strategies