文章编号： 1672-5328（2013）06-0006-12

刘剑锋^1,2，陈必壮³，马小毅⁴，宗传苓⁵，李歆鑫¹
（1.北京交通发展研究中心，北京100073；2.北京工业大学，北京100022；3.上海市城乡建设和交通发展研究院，上海200040； 4.广州市交通规划研究所，广东广州510030；5.深圳市城市交通规划设计研究中心有限公司，广东深圳518021）

摘要： 中国各大城市轨道交通将陆续进入网络化运营阶段，然而对于网络化 进程中客流特征及成长规律尚缺乏深入细致的分析与研究。对北京、上海、广 州、深圳4 个城市轨道交通网络化进程中的客流特征及成长规律进行系统总 结，涉及客运量及客运强度、断面客流量分布、线网换乘系数、乘距与运距、客流 时间分布等。同时，针对轨道交通沿线土地利用、线网规模、服务水平、票制票 价等影响客流特征变化的主要因素进行分析。在此基础上，对当前中国城市轨 道交通规划、建设、运营组织的若干关键问题提出建议

关键词： 城市轨道交通；网络化；客流特征；客流预测；土地利用

中图分类号：491.1⁺2

文献标识码：A

Characteristics and Increasing Trend of Passenger Flow over Urban Rail Transit Network: Analysis on Passenger Flow Data of Rail Transit Network in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen

Liu Jianfeng^1,2, Chen Bizhuang³, Ma Xiaoyi⁴, Zong Chuanling⁵, Li Xinxin¹
(1. Beijing Transportation Research Center, Beijing 100073，China; 2. Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100022, China; 3. Shanghai Urban-Rural Construction and Transportation Research Institute, Shanghai 200040, China; 4. Guangzhou Transport Planning Research Institute, Guangzhou Guangdong 510030, China; 5. Shenzhen Urban Transport Planning Center Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Guangdong 518021, China)

Abstract： As and more rail transit services operate at network level, it is necessary to analyze the characteristics and increasing trend of rail transit passenger flow. This paper first systematically summarize the characteristics and increasing trend of passenger flow over urban rail transit network in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen in several aspects: passenger volume and demand, distribution of passenger volume, transfer rate, riding distance and travel distance, and passenger volume distribution by time of the day. The paper then analyzes the main influential factors to characteristics of passenger flow, such as land use along rail transit line, network scale, level of service, fare system and price, and etc. Finally, the paper makes suggestions on urban rail transit planning, construction, and operation.

Keywords： urban rail transit; network; characteristics of passenger flow; passenger volume forecasting; land use