文章编号： 1672-5328（2014）03-0059-07

李德芬
(国家发展和改革委员会城市和小城镇改革发展中心，北京100045)

摘要： 为弥补民航部门常规预测思路在航空枢纽集疏运设施供给策略、供给规模预测方面的不足， 提出面向集疏运设施规模及供给策略的空港综合交通枢纽客流需求预测思路。在判断主要客流构成 的基础上，明确了分客流、分方式的预测总思路；在分析经济增长和高铁两大影响航空客流增长的 主要因素基础上，分别提出陆侧航空客流和中转航空客流的预测方法，进而得到航空客流总量，支 撑空港枢纽对外交通设施供给策略的制定。以此为基础，通过客流分布、方式划分等技术手段，确 定各集疏运方式的客流需求规模，为相应设施规模的预测提供依据。

关键词： 交通规划：空港枢纽；综合交通枢纽；客流预测；航空客流；广州白云国际机场

中图分类号： U491.1+2

文献标识码：A DOI:10.13813/j.cn11-5141/u.2014.0309

Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting for a Hub Airport: A Case Study in Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport

Li Defen
(China Center for Urban Development, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100045, China)

Abstract： Demand forecasting methods commonly used by civil aviation agencies are inadequate to make effective supply strategies and forecast demand for passenger distributing facilities at airport terminals. To overcome such deficiency, this paper proposes a new passenger travel demand forecasting methodology focused on the scale of facilities and supply strategies. Through identifying the composition of major passenger flows, the paper presents the framework of demand forecasting by flow types and modes. Based on analyses of the two major factors affecting the growth of air-passenger volume, namely economic growth and high-speed railway, the paper proposes the forecasting methods for landside and transfer air-passenger flows, respectively. The total air-passenger volume is then obtained to support the making of facility supply strategies for airport terminals. Based on passenger flow distribution and modal splits, passenger demands of different travel modes can be determined to provide the basis for forecasting the supply of corresponding facilities.

Keywords： transportation planning; airport terminal; multimodal terminal; passenger volume forecasting; air-passenger volume; Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport