文章编号： 1672-5328（2014）03-0083-12

Luis A. Guzman1, Daniel de la Hoz1, Andrés Monzón1 著，刘斌2 译
(1.TRANSyT交通研究中心，马德里工业大学，西班牙马德里28036；2.中国城市规划设计研究院，北京100037)

摘要： 针对交通政策设计中决策过程的可选方法展开探讨。探索对出行政策进行综合预测、评价、 优化以实现决策方案最优的可能性。从长远来看，为了适应像城市这样一个动态系统，采用了用地 与交通相互影响模型(LUTI)的长期评估方法。在评估的全过程中，通过成本效益分析来衡量实施 LUTI 动态决策所产生的社会福利，然后通过优化程序使其达到最大化。这一模型在马德里市收费 站最优定价策略项目中得到验证，该项目要求保证系统效率、社会公平以及环境质量。与其他定价 方案相比，最优方案能以相对较低的收费产生更多的社会盈余。该实践结果突出强调了不同因素对 研究区域以及对社会福利盈余的主要贡献者的影响，从而反思采用的成本分析方法是否可以作为设 计可持续政策的最佳方法。

关键词： 城市交通政策；成本效益分析法；政策优化；可持续交通

中图分类号： U491

文献标识码：A DOI:10.13813/j.cn11-5141/u.2014.0312

Optimal and Long-Term Dynamic Transport Policy Design: Seeking Maximum Social Welfare through a Pricing Scheme

Written by Luis A. Guzman1, Daniel de la Hoz1, and Andrés Monzón1, Translated by Liu Bin2
(1. TRANSyT- Transport Research Center, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Madrid 28036, Spain; 2. China Academy of Urban Planning & Design, Beijing 100037, China)

Abstract： This article presents an alternative approach to the decision-making process in transport strategy design. The study explores the possibility of integrating forecasting, assessment and optimization procedures in support of a decision-making process designed to reach the best achievable scenario through mobility policies. Long-term evaluation, as required by a dynamic system such as a city, is provided by a strategic Land-Use and Transport Interaction (LUTI) model. The social welfare achieved by implementing mobility LUTI model policies is measured through a cost-benefit analysis and maximized through an optimization process throughout the evaluation period. The method is tested by optimizing a pricing policy scheme in Madrid on a cordon toll in a context requiring system efficiency, social equity and environmental quality. The optimized scheme yields an appreciable increase in social surplus through a relatively low rate compared to other similar pricing toll schemes. The results highlight the different considerations regarding mobility impacts on the case study area, as well as the major contributors to social welfare surplus. This leads the authors to reconsider the cost-analysis approach, as defined in the study, as the best option for formulating sustainability measures.

Keywords： urban transport policy; CBA approach; policy optimization; sustainable transportation