文章编号： 1672-5328（2016）02-0022-07

张天然
(上海市城市规划设计研究院，上海200040)

摘要： 将传统交通调查和模型与新的信息技术相结合，根据大数据的特征改进交通模型的方法体 系，是交通模型发展面临的极大挑战。分析交通大数据对交通模型研发的促进作用，特别是在人口 及就业岗位分布、综合交通网络数据和基于交通调查的模型参数等核心数据方面的支撑作用。从相 关定义、市场细分以及信息完整性三个方面阐述大数据与交通模型的一致性问题。深入讨论应用大 数据改进交通调查技术、4D模型研发、出行分布目的地选择模型、轨道交通出行接驳模型、出行 成本校核等交通模型关键技术。通过对比大数据和交通模型的决策分析过程，指出大数据与交通模 型互动发展的途径。

关键词： 交通模型；交通调查；大数据；一致性；决策分析

中图分类号： U491.1+1

文献标识码：A

Transportation Model Development in an Era of Big Data

Zhang Tianran
(Shanghai Urban Planning & Design Research Institute, Shanghai 200040, China)

Abstract： A huge challenge facing the transportation models’ development is how to combine conventional travel survey with new information visual analytics and improve transportation modeling methodologies based on characteristics of big data. This paper analyzes the impact of big data on transportation model development, particularly in key modeling input data such as distribution of population and employment, comprehensive transportation network, and model parameters based on travel survey. The incompatibility of big data and transportation model is discussed in three aspects: their respective definitions, market segmentation and information integrality. The paper elaborates how to use big data to improve the crucial techniques of transportation models, such as travel survey technology, 4D model development, destination choice model, urban rail transit access model, and travel cost evaluation. Finally, the paper emphasizes the interactive development of big data and transportation model through comparing the decision analysis process.

Keywords： transportation model; big data; travel survey; compatibility; decision analysis