文章编号： 1672-5328（2016）04-0070-05

金智英，李豹，王红，朱顺应
(武汉理工大学交通学院，湖北武汉430063)

摘要： 乘客风险识别对优化公共汽车线网调整方案、提高线网调整可实施性、制定社会风险管控策 略具有重要意义。提出一种基于乘客感知的差别—矩阵法来识别乘客风险。在乘客满意度调查与线 网调整乘客期盼调查的基础上，结合现状满意度水平、线网调整期盼高低与优化方案优化程度三者 之间的差异建立三维矩阵模型，划分风险区域以确定风险指标排序。通过对高风险指标和乘客个体 属性相关性影响进行显著性分析，识别高风险群体。模型结果表明：武汉市公共汽车线网调整过程 中高风险指标为换乘次数，其中女性群体、老年群体、自由职业者和公务员以及乘车频率较低的群 体为高风险群体，应针对各群体特性加强制定相应风险管控措施。

关键词： 城市交通；公共汽车；线网调整；风险识别；差别—矩阵法；武汉市

中图分类号： U491.1+7

文献标识码：A

Risk Identification for Passengers in Bus Network Adjustment

Jin Zhiying, Li Bao,Wang Hong, Zhu Shunying
(School of Transportation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430063, China)

Abstract： To identify affected passengers has a great significance in the process of bus network optimization due to the fact that it is able to reduce the risk of implementation as well as controlling social risk. The main objective of this study is to propose a matrix of accommodating difference between passengers' perceptions to identify those affected passenger groups. Such the approach is developed based passenger satisfaction survey and public opinion survey towards bus network adjustment. A three- dimensional matrix which stores the difference among status quo satisfaction level, public expectation about plan and the simulated results of plan is generated to target high risk areas for selecting indicators. A correlation analysis between selected indicators and personal attributes is further implemented to identify the affected groups caused by bus network optimization. The results reveal that number of transfer is selected as the most significant indicators and highly affected groups are women, the old group, self-employment, public officers, and less-frequent bus riders. As a result, a series of risk control strategies should be formulated in respect to different groups.

Keywords： urban transportation; bus; network adjustment; risk identification; difference- matrix method; Wuhan