文章编号： 1672-5328（2017）02-0040-08

张兰芳1，卞韬1，张亮2
(1.同济大学交通运输工程学院，上海201804；2.中国民航机场建设集团公司，北京100101)

摘要： 基于上海浦东国际机场出发旅客出行调查数据，研究航空旅客机场接驳方式选择的影响因 素。将潜在变量分为接驳方式服务水平(包括时间、费用等)和旅客个体属性(包括旅客类型、出发地 等)，通过相关性检验等方法确定关键解释变量。以嵌套Logit(NL)模型为理论基础，指出机场不同 类型旅客接驳方式选择的差异性，并以商务旅客为例，利用模型预测各接驳方式比例。模型结果显 示：出行时间和出行费用是影响机场接驳方式选择的最重要因素；车内时间和车外时间在两类潜在 变量中体现出不同的显著性；携带行李数量(便捷性)和舒适性等也影响接驳方式的选择。最后，利 用北京首都国际机场数据对模型实用性进行评价。

关键词： 接驳方式；航空旅客；Logit模型；离散选择；公共交通；私人交通

中图分类号： U491

文献标识码：A

Access Mode Choice at Large Airport based on NL Model

Zhang Lanfang1, Bian Tao1, Zhang Liang2
(School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China; 2.China Airport Construction Group Corporation, Beijing 100101, China)

Abstract： Based on the survey data of passengers departing from Shanghai Pudong International Airport, this paper studies the factors influencing air passengers' access mode choice. By dividing the potential variables into the level of service of access mode (including time, cost, etc.) and attributes of individual passengers (including passenger type, departure place, and etc.), the paper selected the key explanatory variables based on coefficient of correlation analysis and other methods. Based on Nested Logit model, this paper investigates the differences between various types of passengers in choosing access mode at airports. For example, for business passengers, the model is used to forecast the access mode share. The results show that travel time and cost are the most important influential factors in deciding access mode at airport, variables of in-vehicle travel time and off-vehicle waiting time are significantly different, the number of permitted carry-on bags and comfortableness also affect access mode choice. Finally, the paper assesses the applicability of the model using the data from Beijing Capital International Airport.

Keywords： access mode; air passenger; logit model; discrete choice; public transit; private transportation