文章编号： 1672-5328（2017）05-0087-089

冯苏苇
(上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院，上海200433)

摘要： 随着中国城镇化和机动化进程加速，已有多个城市实施了私人小汽车拥有权管制政策。为了 给政策完善提供有价值的参考，有必要对该政策产生的宏、微观效应进行分析和评估。以上海市为 例，基于公共管制理论，综合运用多种经济计量方法，从宏观层面测算额度管制对私人小汽车增长 的限制效果，发现政策成熟期之后私人小汽车年增幅约减少26%~35%。同时，由年度数据分析拍 卖市场中额度投放量、竞拍人数和年平均中标价的外部影响因素和内部关联机制。进一步，从微观 层面验证月度数据对应的拍卖市场关键变量之间的互动关系，并强调宏微观结论的相互应验和一 致性。

关键词： 交通政策；私人小汽车额度；经济计量方法；拥有权管制；政策效应；上海市

中图分类号： U491

文献标识码：A

Analysis on Effects of Car Ownership Control Policy

Feng Suwei
(Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433)

Abstract： With the rapid development of urbanization and motorization in China, several cities have implemented a series of car ownership control policies. It is necessary to assess the effects for policies improvement. Based on the public regulation theories and a couple of econometric methods, this paper discusses the macro and micro effects of Shanghai quota auction policy on controlling the growth of car ownership. The results show that the policy has decreased annual car increment by 26%~35%. In addition, the paper analyzes the influence of external factors and the mechanism of internal correlation in the quotas, number of bidders, and annual mean winning bids using annual data of the auction market. The monthly data of the auction market is discussed to reveal the mutual relationships of the major factors at micro level, and to verify several rules coherently at macro level.

Keywords： transportation policy; quota for private cars; econometric methods; ownership control; policy effects; Shanghai

冯苏苇.pdf