文章编号： 1672-5328（2018）03-0039-07

何雅琴，容煜伦，柳祖鹏
(武汉科技大学汽车与交通工程学院，湖北武汉430081)

摘要： 城市道路交通事故影响已有研究成果主要针对交通事故影响范围和持续时间，且研究方法为 基于流体力学的交通流理论。该理论假设交通流处于密闭空间，而城市道路网络出入口、节点甚 多，假设与实际情况不符。城市道路交通事故对交通的影响效果与涟漪现象一致，因此采用水波原 理定量分析城市道路交通事故对交通的影响程度。首先将城市交通事故对交通的影响与水面受到干 扰的涟漪现象进行对比分析。在此基础上，提出交通影响系数概念，利用调研所得车速数据绘制交 通影响系数特征曲线；利用SPSS 软件，借助水波波动方程，构建交通影响系数随时间的关系模 型。结果表明，模型拟合度较好，具有统计学意义。

关键词： 道路交通；交通事故；水波原理；影响分析；SPSS

中图分类号： U491.3

文献标识码：A

Traffic Impact Analysis of Urban Road Traffic Accidents Based on Water Wave Theory

He Yaqin, Rong Yulun, Liu Zupeng
(School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430081, China)

Abstract： The existing research of urban traffic accidents focuses on the impact area and duration using traffic flow theory. Such the theory is working based on general fluid mechanism which assumes a close space to road traffic. However, the hypothesis is sometimes unable to reflect the real world situation since there are typically many accesses and intersections in urban road network. Traffic influence of urban traffic accident is similar to ripple effect, so this paper tries to apply water wave theory to analyze the impact degree when encountering with traffic accidents. An analogy between traffic impact under accident and water waves ripple under interruption is unfolded. The concept of traffic impact coefficient is introduced and defined to generate a feature curve of traffic impact coefficient using investigated data. Using the software of SPSS, the paper develops a model of generating the relationship between traffic impact coefficient and time based on water wave equation. The results show that the model is statistical significance.

Keywords： road traffic; traffic accidents; water wave theory; impact analysis; SPSS