文章编号： 1672-5328（2018）04-0074-07

王波，张海霞
(广州市交通规划研究院，广东广州510030)

摘要： 交通是碳排放增长的主要来源。为探索广州市交通领域的达峰路径，通过自下而上的清单核 算方法，按照GPC标准核算出广州市交通领域碳排放清单。惯性情景分析结果表明，2020 年交通 碳排放不但不会达峰，还将进一步提高；根据广州市近期城市交通重要实施方案的定量评估设定干 预情景，其减碳效果比惯性情景减少892 万t。最后，提出广州市“十三五”期间应在三个方面实施 低碳交通发展策略：聚焦城市客运方式转移，关注货运组织优化，推进国家多式联运基础设施 建设。

关键词： 交通政策；低碳交通；排放清单；广州市

中图分类号： U491

文献标识码：A

Development Strategies of Low Carbon Transportation in Guangzhou

Wang Bo, Zhang Haixia
(Guangzhou Transport Planning Research Institute, Guangzhou Guangdong 510030, China)

Abstract： Transportation is the main source of the growth in carbon emissions. To explore the route to the peak of transportation carbon emissions in Guangzhou, this paper adopts the bottom-up method and develops a transportation carbon emission inventory in Guangzhou, according to the Global Protocol for Community- Scale GHG Emissions. The inertial scenario analysis results show that the transportation carbon emissions will peak after 2020. Through quantitatively assessment of the important short-term urban transportation plan in Guangzhou, the results show that the intervention scenario can reduce carbon emissions by 8.92 million tons compared with the inertial scenario. Finally, the paper proposes three strategies for the low carbon transportation development in Guangzhou during "the 13th Five-Year Plan", including travel mode shift, optimization of freight transportation organization, and promotion of the construction of national multimodal transportation infrastructure.

Keywords： transportation policies; low carbon transportation; emission inventory; Guangzhou City