文章编号：1672-5328（2012）02-0046-07

陈志建，丘建栋，宋家骅
（深圳市城市交通规划设计研究中心有限公司，广东 深圳 518021）

摘要：为减少或避免高强度开发地区未来可能遇到的交通拥堵问题，在规划初期应明确其交通发展模式。以深圳市前海深港现代服务业合作区为例，分析城市与区域中心开发中的关键问题，以目标为导向，确定各类交通方式的合理规模，探讨可行对策，最终确立适宜的交通结构，并把规划方案反馈于城市与区域中心的交通基础设施建设。最后，利用Logit模型研究出行影响因子，从规划、政策及投资三方面提出保障措施。

关键词：交通规划；高强度开发；交通发展模式；公共交通；交通模型；OD反推；Logit模型

中图分类号：U491.1⁺2

文献标识码：A

Sustainable Transportation Development Planning in High Developing Area: A Case Study in Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Cooperation Zone

Chen Zhijian, Qiu Jiandong, Song Jiahua
(Shenzhen Urban Transport Planning Center Co. Ltd., Shenzhen Guangdong 518021, China)

Abstract：In order to reduce or avoid the traffic congestion problem potentially caused by high-intensity development in the future，it is necessary to clearly define transportation development patterns at the early stage of the planning. Taking Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Cooperation Zone in Shenzhen City as an example, this paper analyzes the key issues of urban and regional centers development; define the goal-oriented reasonable scale of the various transportation modes; explores feasible policies; and establishes the appropriate transportation system plan that can be fed back to the transportation infrastructure at urban and regional centers. Finally, the paper shows how to use the Logit model to study travel impact factor and to put forward safeguard measures from planning, policy and investment aspects.

Keywords：transportation planning; high-intensity development; transportation development patterns; public transportation; transportation model; OD estimation; Logit model