文章编号：1672-5328（2012）02-0062-06

陈国俊¹，杨晓光¹，刘好德²
（1.同济大学交通运输工程学院，上海 201804；2.交通运输部科学研究院城市交通研究中心，北京 100013）

摘要：为了提高公交到站信息服务系统的可移植性、降低到站时间预测误差、增强到站时间信息服务的可获取性，对如何构建公共汽车到站信息服务系统进行设计。以标准化AVL数据输入为基础，阐述了4项关键技术：制定AVL数据采集内容标准；建立基于行程时间的到站时间预测算法；建立基于事件驱动的到站时间预测控制方法；提出电子站牌与手机相结合的联合信息发布模式。选取实际线路在计算机上实现上述设计成果，并对比分析事件驱动和时间驱动两种控制方法在降低预测误差方面的效果。结果证实，事件驱动控制方法对到站时间预测误差的改善效果比时间驱动控制方法显著。

关键词：交通工程；智能交通；公交到站信息服务；自动车辆定位

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

AVL-based Bus Arrival Information System Design

Chen Guojun¹, Yang Xiaoguang¹, Liu Haode²
(1. School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China; 2. China Urban Sustainable Transport Research Center, China Academy of Transportation Sciences, Beijing 100013, China)

Abstract：To improve service performance, reduce estimated bus arrival time errors, and enhance reliability of bus information service system, this paper introduces the bus information system design. Based on the input of standardized AVL (Automatic Vehicle Location) data, four crucial techniques are introduced including: defining the standards of AVL data content, developing the bus arrival time estimation method based on travel time, setting up an event-driven control method for bus arriving time prediction, and proposing a combined information dissemination mode with electronic board and mobile phone. The designed system is implemented by a computer program into a real case to compare the performance in reducing the estimated bus arrival time by both the event-driven control model and the time-driven control model. The prediction results show that the event-driven control model does have a significant improvement in the estimating error reduction than the time-driven control model does.

Keywords：traffic engineering; intelligent transportation system； bus arrival information service; automatic vehicle location