文章编号： 1672-5328（2019）03-0111-07

韩志玲1，陈艳艳1，李佳贤1，熊杰1，张凡2
(1.北京工业大学北京市交通工程重点实验室，北京100124；2.交通运输部公路科学研究院，北京100088)

摘要： 交通方式选择行为是交通需求预测的重要基础理论。雾霾会导致居民的交通方式选择发生改 变。以交通方式选择为研究对象，基于居民出行意愿调查结果，通过多项回归分析，构建多项 Logistic 回归模型，探究雾霾天气下商务出行计划和休闲出行计划中居民交通方式选择影响因素及 模型构建。结果显示，居民的驾龄、出行频率、出发地和目的地均对商务出行计划和休闲出行计划 的交通方式选择模型具有显著影响；职业仅在商务出行计划中具有显著影响；年龄仅在休闲出行计 划中具有显著影响；性别、出行时耗对交通方式选择无显著影响。研究结果可以为综合运输网络的 交通规划、需求预测和决策制定提供理论支撑和依据。

关键词： 交通规划；城际出行；交通方式选择；多项Logistic回归；雾霾则

中图分类号： U491.1+2

文献标识码：A

Intercity Travel Mode Choice During Haze Pollution

Han Zhiling1, Chen Yanyan1, Li Jiaxian1, Xiong Jie1, Zhang Fan2
(1.Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China; 2.Research Institute of Highway Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100088, China)

Abstract： Haze pollution will lead to shift in travel mode choice, which is an important basic for travel demand forecasting. Based on the survey of residents' travel preference, this paper develops a multinomial logistic regression model through multiple regression analysis to discuss the influencing factors of residents' travel mode choice in business/leisure travel plans during haze pollution. The results show that residents' driving experience, travel frequency, origin and destination have significant impacts on travels' mode choice model of business/leisure travel plans. Moreover, vocation has a significant influence on business travel mode choice model; age has a significant effect on leisure travel mode choice model. However, gender and travel time consumption have no significant impact on it. These findings can provide theoretical support and basis for the traffic plan, the demand forecast and the decision-making of integrated transportation networks.

Keywords： transportation planning; intercity travel; travel mode choice; multinomial logistic regression; haze pollution