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《城市交通》杂志
2020年 第3期
基于微观仿真出行模型的病毒时空扩散分布与控制
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文章编号: 1672-5328(2020)03-0062-09

潘海啸,崔毅
(同济大学建筑与城市规划学院,上海200092)

摘要: 现代社会人们的交往活动日益频繁,新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)等呼吸性传染疾病在人际 间传播与人们的日常出行行为密切相关。因此,在城市规划和管理中需要研究和探讨呼吸性疾病传 播的时空分布规律。利用西南某省会城市的居民出行调查数据,构建微观仿真出行模型,模拟病毒 在中心城区和市域空间的动态传播过程。由于公共交通空间狭小、人员密集,乘客感染概率较大, 故对抑制公共交通传播途径和采取全民预防措施的效果进行模拟分析。结果表明,这些措施可以有 效降低病毒在人群中的感染速度和扩散范围,为早期病毒防控争取较长的窗口期。该方法可以辅助 城市管理部门在疫情早期做出精准决策,也可以对未来城乡规划如何应对突发公共卫生事件提供借鉴。

关键词: 交通模型;微观仿真;出行行为;MATSim;病毒传播

中图分类号: U491

文献标识码:A

Virus Spatiotemporal Diffusion Distribution and Control Based on Micro Simulation Travel Model

Pan Haixiao, Cui Yi
(Tongji University, College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shanghai 200092, China)

Abstract: With the development of social economy, people's communication activities are increasingly frequent. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other respiratory infectious diseases are closely related to people's daily activities and travel behavior. It is necessary to study the spatiotemporal distribution of respiratory diseases in urban planning and management. Based on travel survey data of a provincial capital city in Southwest China, this paper develops a micro travel model to simulate the dynamic transmission of virus in both urban central area and metropolitan area. Due to the narrow space of public transit, the dense populated and the high probability of passenger infection, the paper simulates the effect of restraining the transit transmission and taking prevention measures for people. The results show that these measures can effectively reduce the infection speed and spread range of the virus in the population which leaves a longer window period for early virus control. The method discussed in the paper can help urban management departments to make accurate decisions in the early stage of the epidemic, and can also provide reference for future urban and rural planning on how to deal with public health emergency.

Keywords: transportation model; micro-simulation; travel behavior; MATSim; virus transmission