文章编号：1672-5328（2010）03-0079-16

Yavuz Duvarcia¹，Shoshi Mizokami² 著，蒋中铭³，朱明⁴ 译
（1. 伊兹密尔理工大学区域与城市规划系，乌拉伊兹密尔35430，土耳其；2.熊本大学土木与环境工程系，2-39-1 黑发，熊本 8608555，日本；3.清华大学交通研究所，北京100084；4.克莱德贝尔格曼华通物料输送有限公司，北京100035）

摘要：在交通弱势群体受抑制需 求可被计算、并将其加入现有出行 需求的前提下，提出一种预估交通 供需的方法。该方法的潜在假设 是交通弱势群体的出行条件和普 通群体相同，即所谓的受抑制需求 “全部释放”。在利用“四阶段”法 为交通弱势群体建模的过程中，分 析了交通弱势群体的受抑制需求 及其与普通群体间的平等问题，同 时详尽阐述了最易受伤害的交通 弱势群体(如老年人和残疾人)的 特殊需求，并确定其在各方面面临 的困难。最后，利用软件模拟分析 得出的结论是：针对交通弱势群体 全部释放的受抑制需求(出行总量 增加5%)，政策制定者须为面临一 定的财政负担做好准备，同时做好 协调工作，达到既减少运营成本 又满足交通弱势群体出行需求的 目标。

关键词：交通规划；受抑制出行需 求；交通弱势群体；残疾人和老年人

中图分类号：U491.1⁺2

文献标识码：A

A Suppressed Demand Analysis Method of the Transportation Disadvantaged in Policy Making

Written by Yavuz Duvarcia¹, Shoshi Mizokami², Translated by JIANG Zhong-ming³, ZHU Ming⁴
(1. Department of City and Regional Planning, Izmir Institute of Technology, Urla Izmir 35430, Turkey; 2.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kumamoto University, 2-39-1, Kurokami, Kumamoto 8608555, Japan; 3.Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua Univesity, Beijing 100084, China; 4.Clyde Bergemann Huatong Materials Handling Company Ltd., Beijing 100035, China)

Abstract：This paper proposes a method for estimating transportation supply requirements when the suppressed demand of the transportation disadvantaged (TD) can be calculated and added to existing demand for travel. The underlying assumption is that the travel conditions of these TD groups must be equal to the 'conventional' demand, known as 'full release'. Utilizing the modelling approach for TD, suppressed demand analysis, diagnosis of difficulties and equity between conventional and disadvantaged groups were realised, while elaborating special cases for the most vulnerable TD groups (such as elderly and disabled persons) and simultaneously identifying areas of difficulty. From the early virtual results, it is concluded that, for the full release of suppressed trips (only a 5% increase), policy makers must be ready to face some financial burdens, requiring coordination of effort to both standardize these TD groups and reduce the costs incurred by operators.

Keywords：transportation planning; suppressed travel demand; transportation disadvantage; disabled and elderly persons