文章编号： 1672-5328（2021）04-0074-10

宋素娟，马毅林，张颖达，孙玲
(1. 北京交通发展研究院，北京100073；2.城市交通运行仿真与决策支持北京市重点实验室，北京100073)

摘要： 大型体育赛事宏观交通模型是开展赛事期间交通政策及赛事交通各类方案评估测试工作的重 要支撑。针对大型体育赛事交通模型的特殊性，提出模型总体框架和构建流程，包括交通需求模 型、交通网络模型、模型校核与验证以及模型应用四个主要部分，并且以模型应用为导向决定交通 需求模型、交通网络模型和模型校核验证的技术路线。交通需求模型包括城市背景交通需求和赛事 交通需求，两者既相对独立又相互联系。城市背景交通需求模型需覆盖不同交通特征日，赛事交通 需求应根据各客户群的出行特征分别开展预测。将不同测试场景下城市背景交通和赛事交通相同时 空维度的需求叠加，在修正的交通网络模型上分配，获得特定场景下的交通运行状况。最后回归至 模型的应用，提出了模型测试的流程和主要评估指标。

关键词： 大型体育赛事；宏观交通模型；模型框架；赛事交通需求；方案测试评估

中图分类号： U491.1+2

文献标识码：A

Macroscopic Transportation Model of Major Sports Events

Song Sujuan, Ma Yilin, Zhang Yingda, Sun Ling
(1. Beijing Transport Institute, Beijing 100073, China; 2. Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Transport Simulation and Decision Making Support, Beijing 100073, China)

Abstract： Macroscopic transportation model is important for evaluating and testing transportation policies and plans of major sports events. Based on characteristics of transportation model of major sports events, this paper proposes a model framework and development modules, which includes travel demand model, transportation network model, model validation, and application. Model application result is used to determines the techniques of travel demand model, transportation network model and model validation. Travel demand model includes urban daily travel and event travel, which are independent and, yet, interrelated. Urban daily travel demand involves different traffic characteristic by day of the week, while the event travel demand is forecasted based on different user groups. Urban daily travel demand and event travel demands with the same spatial-temporal settings under different test scenarios are superimposed, and then are allocated in the modified transportation network assignment model to simulate traffic operation. Aiming at the model application, the paper proposes model validation techniques and the main evaluation indicators.

Keywords： major sports events; macroscopic transportation model; model framework; event travel demand; test and evaluation