文章编号： 1672-5328（2021）05-0066-07

王振报
(河北工程大学建筑与艺术学院，河北邯郸056038)

摘要： 整合土地利用、交通需求和污染排放建立一体化模型，对政策、措施实施力度进行碳排放评 估有利于方案决策分析。基于美国马里兰州PRESTO一体化模型套件提出一种基于四阶段法嵌入电 动汽车的交通需求模型，评估电动汽车的不同拥有和使用方案对碳排放的影响。由高、中、低三个 电动汽车拥有率和两个电动汽车使用成本交叉组合成6 个测试方案，利用多元回归分析确定CO2排 放量变化率的影响因素。通过计算马里兰州各县CO2排放量的基尼系数，论证各测试方案碳排放量 的均衡程度。结果表明：1)电动汽车高拥有方案可使全州碳排放量比2015 年减少约16%；2)中低收 入家庭和高收入家庭电动汽车拥有比例是CO2排放量变化率的影响因素，并呈负相关关系，鼓励这 两类家庭使用电动汽车更有利于减少碳排放；3)各县单位面积碳排放量极不均衡，为了缩小差距促 进均衡，对于高指标的地区应采取更加积极的减排策略和措施。

关键词： 交通规划；交通模型；电动汽车；方案评估；碳排放；多元回归；马里兰州

中图分类号： U491

文献标识码：A

Impact of Electric Vehicle Strategies on Carbon Emissions: Take the Maryland PRESTO Model Application as an Example

Wang Zhenbao
(School of Architecture and Art, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan Hebei 056038, China)

Abstract： Establishing an integrated model integrating land use, travel demand and pollution emissions, and using it to evaluate the carbon emissions of a certain strategy or measure are conducive to plan decision analysis. Based on the Maryland PRESTO model, a four- step travel demand model for electric vehicles is proposed to evaluate the impact of different ownership and use options of electric vehicles on carbon emissions. Six electric vehicle test scenarios were cross-combined from three electric vehicle ownership levels of high, medium, and low as well as two electric vehicle usage costs. Multiple regression analysis was used to determine the significant factors affecting carbon emissions. The Gini coefficient of the CO2 emissions in different counties in Maryland are calculated to demonstrate the equilibrium degree of carbon emissions of each test scenario. The results show that: 1) the scenario with a high ownership of electric vehicle can reduce the state's carbon emissions by about 16% compared with 2015; 2) the proportions of electric vehicle ownership in the groups of low- and middle-income households and high-income households significantly affect carbon emissions, and the two factors are negatively correlated with the changes in emissions. Encouraging the two types of households using electric vehicles is more conducive to reducing carbon emissions; 3) the carbon emissions per unit area of each county is extremely uneven. More active strategies and measures for emissions reduction should be adopt for the areas with high carbon emissions per unit area.

Keywords： transportation planning; transportation model; electric vehicle; scenario evaluation; carbon emissions; multiple regression; Maryland State