文章编号：1672-5328（2009）04-0051-07

李鑫铭，陆　建，王　炜
（东南大学交通规划与管理江苏省重点实验室，江苏 南京 210096）

摘要：为反映我国交通影响分析(TIA)的技术发展状况和存在的问题，对相关文献进行分析总结，从发展状况、阈值理论、预测模型、交通影响费、制度模式5个方面进行综述。研究显示，我国交通影响分析更重视交通对土地的反作用，实施对象由单体项目向区域化发展，而在交通影响分析调控土地开发强度的能力和为筹集建设资金增开渠道的作用方面尚未得到充分发挥。为了使我国交通影响分析工作更加完善，需要在4个方面进行更深入的研究：区域性交通影响分析理论、适合交通影响分析的分配算法、适合我国的交通影响费制度以及交通影响评价市场的规范化。

关键词：交通规划；交通影响分析；综述；阈值预测模型；交通影响费；制度模式

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

Review of Development of TIA Methodologies in China

LI Xin-ming, LU Jian, WANG Wei
(Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Transportation Planning and Management, Southeast University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210096, China)

Abstract：In order to expose the development status and existing problems of traffic impact analysis (TIA) methodologies in China, this paper presents a literature review in 5 areas, i.e., development status, threshold standards, forecasting models, impact fees, and social patterns. The paper reveals that TIA studies in China are more concerned with transportation reactions on land-use, and that TIA subject projects are shifting from standalone development to regional land-use. On the other hand, TIA studies are not fully used as a leverage to control land-use density and to collect development funds. Finally, the paper argues that improving TIA studies in China urges further research on regional TIA theories, traffic assignment algorithms, impact fee systems suited for China, and regulations of TIA consulting markets.

Keywords：transportation planning; traffic impact analysis; review; thresholds; forecasting models; impact fees; social patterns