文章编号：1672-5328（2009）02-0086-07

姚　建¹，田冬梅²，蒋仲安²，牛　伟²，郑　斌³
（1.华北科技学院安全工程学院，北京 101601；2.北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院，北京 100083； 3.四川石油管理局川东钻探公司安全环保质量部，重庆 400021）

摘要：深入研究交通事故高发的影响因素，对预防和减少交通事故有重要的现实意义。采用安全系统工程方法，对交通撞车事故进行事故树分析。应用概率论知识，经过求解，得出3个最小径集，说明预防交通事故发生的可能途径。通过分析比较各基本事件的结构重要度、概率重要度和危险重要度，明确了基本事件与顶上事件的逻辑关系。最后，给出了合理、经济、安全的预防措施。

关键词：交通管理；交通安全；事故树分析；预防措施

中图分类号：U491.31

文献标识码：A

Analysis of Impact Factors of Vehicular Crashes

YAO Jian¹, TIAN Dong-mei², JIANG Zhong-an², NIU Wei², ZHENG Bin³
(1.Safety Engineering College, North China Institute of Science and Technology, Beijing 101601，China; 2.Civil and Environment Engineering School, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China; 3. Safety & Environment Protection Part in East Sichuan Drilling Crop, Sichuan Oil Management Dept., Chongqing 400021, China)

Abstract：An in-depth study on impact factors of traffic accidents could be important and realistically conducive in preventing and reducing traffic accidents. Utilizing methodology of safety system engineering, and through a fault-tree analysis of vehicular crashes, this paper develops three sets of minimum paths based on probability theory, resulting in the possible means to prevent traffic accidents from happening. The paper then compares the degrees of significance of the structure, probability, and hazard of basic events, and specifies the logic relationship between the basic and top-tiered events. Finally, the paper presents measures to prevent traffic accidents, which are believed to be reasonable, economic, and safe to implement.

Keywords：traffic management; traffic safety; fault tree analysis；preventive measures