文章编号：1672-5328（2008）02-0073-04

焦国安¹ 杨永强² 杨菲³ 金霞⁴ 邹熙⁵
（1. 美国纽约都市运输委员会，纽约 10038；2. 美国密歇根州大溪城都市规划委员会，大溪城 49503； 3. 美国Louis Berger咨询公司，纽约 10038；4. 美国Cambridge Systematics 咨询公司，纽约 10016；5.美国STV咨询公司，纽约 10003）

摘要：中国近年来经济快速增长，带来了全面性的城市交通建设。在促进经济发展和社会进步的同时，中国城市交通的发展正面临着许多挑战。如何有效地评估适应新挑战的交通政策措施，并确保交通政策的妥善执行，是中国相关政府部门刻不容缓的课题。通过对已有50年经验的美国运输规划与交通需求预测程序相关立法资料的整理，认为包括数据收集、数据分析、交通需求预测以及替代方法评估的城市交通规划程序可以有效地协助政府部门与专家面对这些新兴的挑战。同时指出，一个定期修订以反映社会发展变化的全国交通建设与发展法，可规范一定比例的资金预算，规定城市交通规划程序与执行的规划组织，并要求制定人员培训计划以有效地执行交通政策。

关键词：交通规划；交通授权法案；3C（持续的、合作的、全面的）交通规划程序；交通需求预测；都市规划组织

中图分类号：U491.1⁺2

文献标识码：A

Legislation Background of Urban Travel Demand Forecasting in the U.S.

Chiao Kuo-Ann¹, Yang Yongqiang², Yang Fei³, Jin Xia⁴ and Zou Xi⁵
(1. New York Metropolitan Transportation Council, New York 10038,USA; 2. Grand Valley Metropolitan Council, Grand Valley 49503,USA; 3. The Louis Berger Group, Inc., New York 10038,USA; 4. Cambridge Systematics, Inc., New York 10016,USA; 5. STV Group Inc., New York 10003,USA)

Abstract: China's rapid economic growth in recent years has brought a comprehensive urban transportation development. Accompanying with the promotion of economic development and social progress, China's urban transportation development is facing many challenges. Assessing how effectively adapt to the new challenges of transportation policy consideration and ensureing proper implementation of transportation policy are the pressing issues to China's transportation agencies. An official urban transportation planning process with data collection and analysis, travel demand forecasting, as well as alternative analysis methods could effectively assist the Chinese transportation officials and experts while facing these new challenges. China should consider the establishment of a national transportation development legislation, which should be regularly updated to reflect changes in the social development. The legislation is crucial to require the allocation of a certain proportion of the capital budget to urban transportation planning process and its implementation organization, as well as professional capacity of building programs and providing training, so that transportation policies could be implemented effectively.

Keywords: transportation planning; transportation authorization act; 3C transportation planning process; travel demand forecasting; Metropolitan Planning Organization(MPO)