文章编号：1672-5328（2008）01-0023-05

吴子啸¹ 杨建新² 蔡润林¹
（1. 中国城市规划设计研究院，北京100037； 2. 南阳市规划设计院，南阳 473000）

摘要：由于传统交通需求模型不能适当地反映交通系统拥挤程度对居民出行的影响，引入出行时耗预算的概念（即个人每天出行花费的时间保持相对稳定），探讨了在交通需求预测中考虑出行时耗预算的方法。以引入反馈机制的四阶段需求模型为基础，提出带有在线出行时耗参数标定的反馈机制。通过将预测流程中出行分布阶段构造为一个优化问题，以此估计出行OD（Origin-Destination）矩阵和出行时耗参数。带有在线出行时耗参数标定的反馈机制不仅克服了传统四阶段需求模型出行阻尼不一致问题，而且可以保证每次循环及最终输出的OD矩阵满足出行时耗预算的约束条件。在南阳市交通需求分析模型中的测试证实了其有效性。

关键词：交通规划；需求预测；优化算法；出行时耗

中图分类号：U491.1⁺4

文献标识码：A

Travel Demand Forecasting Methods with the Consideration of Travel Time Budget

Wu Zixiao¹, Yang Jianxin² and Cai Runlin¹
(1. China Academy of Urban Planning & Design, Beijing 100037, China； 2. Nanyang Academy of Urban Planning and Design, Nanyang 473000, China)

Abstract: As the traditional travel demand model can not reflect the effects of traffic jam on travel appropriatly, the concept of a travel time budget (i.e. the idea that an individuals' average daily travel time tends to be relatively constant) has been widely accepted. Methods that incorporate travel time budget constraints in the travel demand forecasting process is explored. Based on the four-step demand model with a feedback loop, a feedback mechanism with on-line travel time parameter calibration is proposed. This is done by formulating trip distribution states as an optimization problem, so as to simultaneously estimate the OD matrix and travel time parameters. Feedback with on-line travel time parameter calibration overcomes inconsistent travel impedances that exist in the traditional four-step demand model, and furthermore, can ensure the output OD matrix (in each iteration and final result) to satisfy travel time budget constraints. This proposed method has been applied in a case study and its validity has been tested.

Keywords: transportation planning; travel demand forecasting; optimization algorithm; travel time budget