文章编号：1672-5328（2007）06-0054-04

张子栋¹ 徐建红²
（1.中国城市规划设计研究院，北京 100037；2.洛阳市规划局，洛阳 471023）

摘要：针对机场旅客吞吐量预测中重要指标难以选取的问题，采用主成分分析法，对国内四个主要机场旅客吞吐量的影响因素进行分析，提取了最主要的影响因素。研究表明，影响不同机场旅客吞吐量因素的重要性排名有所不同，但最主要的影响因素却相似，包括城市GDP、总人口数、社会消费品零售总额等。这些影响指标的提取，将为构建机场旅客吞吐量预测模型提供重要参考。

关键词：机场旅客吞吐量；主成分分析；影响因素

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

An Analysis of Major Factors on Airport Passenger Volumes

ZHANG Zidong¹ and XU Jianhong²
(1.China Academy of Urban Planning and Design, Beijing 100037; 2.Luoyang Urban Planning Bureau, Luoyang 471023)

Abstract: Regarding difficulties in identifying major factors for air passenger throughput forecasting, this paper analyzes the impact factors on air passenger throughput of 4 main airports in China by utilizing the principal component analysis (PCA) method, and eventually narrows down the most significant factors which, the research shows, are similar across different airports, despite the fact that the ranking of significance of these factors for varying airport is different. Identifying these significant impact factors, such as GDP, total population, total consuming goods in retail, and so on, will provide some insights into developing models to forecast air passenger throughput.

Keywords: airport passenger throughput; principal component analysis (PCA); impact factors