文章编号：1672-5328（2007）04-0039-05

张建
（美国Caliper公司，Newton，MA 02461）

摘要：无车日活动是在有限的时间内，在城市规定区域里限制非公交机动车辆的通行，以减少拥堵、污染和噪音, 并鼓励人们使用有利于环保的交通方式。介绍了一个专用于模拟无车日活动的交通需求预测模型，以对无车日期间的交通网络状况作量化分析。模型运行结果表明，在整个城市范围内，无车日措施使公交和非机动出行比例大幅增长，特别是自行车。同时，城市道路的拥堵情况和机动车废气排放量明显减少。缺点是除步行外，各类交通方式的平均出行时间有所增加。

关键词：无车日；交通需求预测模型；交通方式；环境保护；废气排放模型

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

A Travel Demand Forecasting Model for Car Free Days

ZHANG Jian
(Caliper Corporation, Newton, MA 02461)

Abstract: During a Car Free Day event, motorized non-transit vehicles are prohibited in certain urban areas, so as to reduce congestion, pollution, and noise, as well as to encourage the use of travel modes without negative impacts on environment. This paper introduces a travel demand model that simulates car free day activities, with a purpose to quantitatively analyze the corresponding network conditions. The results show that in the entire network the proportions of transit and non-motorized mode trips increased significantly, especially for bicycle mode. Meanwhile, roadway congestions and emission pollutant volumes dropped greatly. One shortcoming, however, is that, except for walking, all other travel modes resulted in an increased average travel time.

Keywords: car free day; travel demand forecast model; travel modes; environment protection; emission model