文章编号：1672-5328（2007）03-0053-05

袁鹏程 韩印 范炳全
（上海理工大学管理学院，上海 200093）

摘要：考虑到现实条件下交通网络的不确定性状态，提出了从确定型网络到不确定型网络状态下，出行者路径选择行为的改变，即由出行时间最短的路径选择行为转变为在追求一定行程时间可靠性的基础上选择出行时间最短的路径选择行为。考虑到网络上交通需求量的不确定性提出了最优可靠行程时间的概念。在此基础上将出行者追求最优可靠行程时间的路径选择行为纳入到随机交通网络平衡分配模型中，证明了模型的等价性和唯一性。最后在一个小型测试网络上对模型分配结果进行了测试，测试结果符合实际情况，表明模型能够较好地反映出行者的路径选择行为。

关键词：随机交通网络；随机用户平衡；最优可靠行程时间；冗余时间

中图分类号：U491.1⁺3

文献标识码：A

Stochastic Transportation Networks Equilibrium Analysis Based on Stochastic Traffic Flows

YUAN Pengcheng, HAN Yin, and FAN Bingquan
(School of Management, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, shanghai 200093, China)

Abstract: With respects to indeterministic transportation networks, this paper analyzes the changes of route choice behavior from deterministic to stochastic transportation networks. The route choice behavior is described as to choice a time shortest path which is subject to a time-reliability level. Considering stochastic flows on the network，the paper proposes an optimized reliable travel time and incorporates the concept into the stochastic user equilibrium model, and demonstrates the equivalence and uniqueness of the solution of the model. A numerical analysis of a small network shows that the proposed model can reflect the real behavior of travelers in route choice from a stochastic transportation network.

Keywords: stochastic transportation networks; stochastic user equilibrium; optimized reliable travel time; time redundancy