文章编号：1672-5328（2007）02-0066-05

叶亮 贺宁
（同济大学交通运输工程学院，上海 200092）

摘要：非集计模型近年来在交通模型的研究领域受到较多关注。主要讨论了未建交通系统中意愿调查方法的使用，以及如何在意愿调查数据的基础上建立非集计模型并进行客流需求分析。着重对基于SP调查的非集计模型在黄浦江水上巴士交通客运交通系统中的应用进行了研究和探讨，介绍了黄浦江水上巴士交通的SP调查以及其他相关调查，建立了非集计模型用于水上巴士交通服务模式选择和需求预测，对上海市水上巴士未来客流增长空间进行了判断。指出非集计模型适用于具体的小规模的有针对性的规划设计项目，SP调查的设计以及调查数据的采集是非集计模型建立的关键，基于SP调查的非集计模型可用于未建交通系统的服务模式确定、客流需求预测等方面。

关键词：SP调查；非集计模型；水上巴士；客流需求预测；服务水平

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

The Application of Disaggregating Model by Stated-Preference Survey on Waterbus

YE Liang, and HE Ning
(School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China)

Abstract: The paper discusses SP survey method in the future transportation system and how to build disaggregate model based on SP data and forecast the passengers demand. For appraisal of new transportation modes, disaggregate model by SP survey is indispensable. In this paper a disaggregate model which based on SP survey has been established and used to choose the service pattern and forecast passenger flow of waterbus in Huangpu River. Then the SP and other related surveys are carried to support the disaggregate model. Finally, the author analyzes the developing space of passenger demand in the future. The paper points that disaggregate model is adequate for small projects, and the design of SP survey and the collection of the data are the critical factors of building the disaggregate model. The disaggregate model based on SP survey can be used for choosing the service level and forecasting passengers demand.

Keywords: SP survey; disaggregate model; waterbus; passenger forecast; service level