文章编号：1672-5328（2007）01-0072-08

易汉文
(美国加州交通部，加利福尼亚 92110)

摘要：经过数十年的理论研究与探讨，特别是最近10年来在模型开发和实际应用方面所取得的长足进步，基于行为的出行预测方法已经具备了所有基本条件，来取代目前仍占主导地位的基于出行的方法和模型。首先对行为模型的一些基本概念作了必要的铺垫，进而在扼要介绍了欧美国家进行模型开发与实际应用情况的基础上，来揭示行为模型受到广泛重视的政策与技术背景，并剖析这种新一代模型的理论基础、技术框架和特有魅力。最后针对行为模型在我国的开发应用课题，提出了若干初步建议。

关键词：出行预测方法；行为模型；出行(四阶段)模型；模型开发与应用；变革

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

From Trip-Based To Activity-Based Approaches:A Review of the Revolutionary Shift of Travel Forecasting Paradigms

YI Hanwen
(California Department of Transportation, CA 92110, U.S.A.)

Abstract: After decades of theoretical research and experimental explorations, especially for the last 10 years, the activity-based approaches to travel forecasting have seen significant progress in operational model development and practical implementations, and become readily available to replace the traditional trip-based approaches currently dominating over the arena of travel analysis. Through an introduction of some basic concepts, this paper first identifies, from a perspective of policy and technical background, the key impetus that drives this new generation of travel modeling approaches to have been gaining more and more attentions across the world. Then the paper reviews the theoretical fundamentals, technical framework, data collection methods, as well as implementation procedures of the new approaches. Finally, the paper concludes with a brief discussion on model developments and practical applications of the new approaches in China.

Keywords: travel forecasting approaches; activity-based model; trip-based model (4SM); model development and implementation; revolutionary shift