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《城市交通》杂志
2006年 第6期
特大城市交通出行预测:中国面临的挑战与机遇
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文章编号:1672-5328(2006)06-0005-10

David Boyce1  熊倩2 著  聂宇1  沈未3 译
(1.美国西北大学土木和环境工程系, Evanston, IL 60208;2. PTV 美国,Wilmington, DE 19801;3. 美国加州大学Davis 分校土木和环境工程系,Davis 95616)

摘要:作为城市交通规划的一个重要组成部分,城市交通出行预测的发展已经走过了60年。最初的研究工作于20世纪50年代在北美展开,随后延伸到欧洲、澳大利亚、新西兰和南美洲以及中国等发展中国家。作为一个相对成熟的领域,交通规划依然包含着许多新的研究方向,同时专业人员在正确合理的使用商业软件方面还有一定的困难。中国正在经历高速的城市化进程,这意味着对道路、公交系统、机场以及城际间高速公路建设有大量的投资。合理的投资决策需要对未来中国交通拥挤的都市进行出行预测。为了更好的了解中国交通出行预测的发展现状,笔者和几个大城市的交通规划部门以及大学的相关院系进行了探讨和交流。 此文的初衷是记录下从会谈中所获得的有普遍意义的发现与印象,以及提供给参加讨论者的意见。

关键词:城市交通出行预测;拥挤;交通规划

中图分类号:U491

文献标识码:A

Forecasting Travel for Very Large Cities: Challenges and Opportunities for China

Written by David Boyce1, Cherry Xiong2, Translated by NIE Yu1, SHEN Wei3
(1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northwestern University, vanston, IL 60208, U.S.A.; 2. PTV America, Inc., DE 19801, U.S.A.; 3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, U.S.A.)

Abstract: Urban travel forecasting, a component of the field of urban transportation planning, has entered its sixth decade, having been introduced in the early 1950s in North America, from which it spread to other developed countries, and then to developing countries such as China. Although this field is relatively mature, many new research directions are being pursued; at the same time practitioners experience ongoing difficulties with applying commercial software systems in correct and meaningful ways. China is presently undergoing rapid urbanization, implying major investments in road and transit systems, as well as airports and intercity surface transportation systems. Wise investment decisions require forecasts of future urban travel in China’s congested cities. To understand the state of travel forecasting, the authors recently held discussions with professionals at several planning agencies of China’s largest cities, as well as university departments engaged in related teaching and research. Our objective here is to relate the general findings and impressions from these discussions, as well as the message we presented to the seminar participants.

Key words: urban travel forecasting; congestion; transportation planning