文章编号：1672-5328（2006）06-0058-06

周翔¹ 韩印² 范炳全²
(1. 上海市城市规划设计研究院，上海 200040；2.上海理工大学区域规划与交通运输系统研究所，上海 200093)

摘要：重大交通工程项目必将给城市交通的时空分布带来重大影响，甚至影响整个城市路网交通形态。从区域经济和交通区位势角度考察重大交通工程项目的地位、作用，以其功能定位为关键，从区域和市域两个层面探讨了自然增长型OD量、诱增型OD量和城市跨越式发展的OD当量增长的综合交通需求预测；采用重大交通工程项目与城市交通网络相互关联、相互影响的观点，运用EMME/2规划软件进行了多方案的评价、分析，给出了定量结果。提出的城市重大交通工程项目的交通影响分析的理念、思路、方法对重大交通工程项目的工程可行性研究具有一定的借鉴意义。

关键词：交通区位势；功能定位；交通需求预测；交通影响分析

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

A Study on Traffic Impact Analysis of Urban Capital Transportation Projects: A Case Study of Oujiang Tunnel in Wenzhou

ZHOU Xiang¹, HAN Yin², FAN Bingquan²
(1. Shanghai Urban Planing & Design Research Institute, Shanghai 200040, China; 2. Center of Research on Transports Systems, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China)

Abstract: Capital transportation projects will surely have great impacts on spatial-temporal trip distributions within a certain urban area, and even affect the travel patterns of the whole surface transport network. From the standpoint of a regional economy and theories of space locations，this paper reviews the importance and functions of urban capital transportation projects. The paper proposes a comprehensive method to forecast the natural growth OD, induced OD, and equivalent OD based on a regional as well as an urban area levels. In regards of the fact that capital transportation projects interacts with and influence on the entire urban surface transport network, evaluation and analysis of alternatives are established, and the numeric results of alternatives obtained from EMME/2 are provided as well. The theory together with the method proposed in this paper bears some reference value for feasibility analyses of capital transportation projects.

Key words: TAZ location; function & positioning; travel demand forecasting; Traffic Impact Analysis (TIA)