文章编号：1672-5328（2006）04-0070-06

陆奇志 艾力·斯木吐拉
(新疆农业大学机械交通学院，乌鲁木齐 830052)

摘要：从公交系统发车时间可靠性，途中运行时间可靠性及出行者出行时刻、等待时间、途中乘运时间、到达终点的时间调查入手，通过对出行过程的分析，建立出行者在运行时间可靠性水平不同的3条公交线路之间的出行时间分布模型。利用此模型，对出行者在3条公交线路之间的换乘过程中，多种不同公共交通服务水平对出行者的影响进行仿真。对公交系统运行时间可靠性问题进行了分析探讨，提出了一套基于Matlab仿真技术的公共交通系统运行时间可靠性分析和评价方法，并应用所建模型进行公交系统运行时间的可靠性评价。

关键词：公交系统；运行时间；可靠性；延误；Matlab仿真；评价方法

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

A Matlab Simulation Method for Evaluation of Travel Time Reliability of Public Transportation System

LU Qizhi，Eli Ismutulla
(Mechanical and Traffic Engineering College, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)

Abstract: Based on the investigation of departure time reliability of transport system and travel time reliability and passenger start time and waiting time and carried time and arrival final destination time, the analysis began with an assumed personal journey, this study has set up a mode which contains the interchange journeys via different distributing modes of public transport. Apply the mode to simulate the impacts of departure time reliability of public transport services on arrival lateness, which contains three sections public transports are carefully analysis and discussed. A simulation method for analysis and evaluation of operation time reliability of transport system on Matlab is introduced. Furthermore, according to the simulation method carries out evaluation operation time reliability of transport system.

Key words: public transportation system; running time; reliability; lateness; Matlab simulation; evaluation method