文章编号：1672-5328（2006）03-0062-05

刘莹1 郑红普2 张德欣1
（1.北京交通发展研究中心，北京100053；2.北京市运输管理局，北京 100053）

摘要：从2000年起，北京市出租汽车保有量一直保持稳定。但进入2004年7月，为了完成车型更新，北京市出租汽车开始了为期半年的大规模车辆报废，出租汽车保有量迅速降低，这为分析出租汽车保有量和供给能力的关系提供了很好的机会。根据出租汽车行业的特点，对出租汽车供给能力、实际供给能力和潜在供给能力等概念进行了阐述，分析总结了出租汽车供给能力的影响因素。以北京市出租汽车换型期保有量大幅波动为研究背景，以北京市6万余辆出租汽车的IC卡记录数据为基础，设计相关公式，计算和分析了北京市出租汽车换型期间不同保有量水平下的供给能力。就北京市出租汽车保有量变化对供给能力的影响进行了深入分析，并提出建议。

关键词：出租汽车；供给能力；影响因素；保有量

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

An Analysis on Taxi Supply-Capabilities during the Beijing Taxicab Renewal Period

Liu Ying1，Zheng Hongpu2，Zhang Dexin1
(1. Beijing Transportation Research Center，Beijing 100053，China；2. Beijing Transportation Management Bureau，Beijing 100053，China)

Abstract: The number of taxicabs in service (NTS) in Beijing has kept steady since 2000. However, in July 2004，the Beijing munici-pal government began a half-year period of taxicab renewal in a large amount, leading to a dramatic decrease in NTS in Beijing. The renewal provides an excellent opportunity to analyze the relation-ships between the NTS and the supply capacity of the taxi market (SCTM). Based on the market characteristics and the SCTM data, this paper discusses the concepts of SCTM, the actual and potential SCTMs, and sorts out factors that impact the SCTM. Grounded on the dramatic changes of NTS during the renewal period, and accord-ing to the IC data of 60-thousand taxicabs in Beijing, the paper de-velops formulas to calculate the SCTMs under different NTSs main-tained during the Beijing taxicab renewal period, and analyzes in de-tail the influences of NTS changes on SCTM, with some sugges-tions included as well.

Key words: taxicab; supply-capability of the taxi market (SCTM); impact factors; number of taxicabs in service (NTS)