文章编号：1672-5328（2005）04-0059-04

关宏志1 邵洁1 李亚茹2 白洪岭2
（1.北京工业大学， 北京 100022； 2.交通部公路科学研究所， 北京 100088）

【摘 要】随着我国私人小汽车保有量的迅速增加和旅游业的繁荣，自驾车旅游交通需求不断增加。由于旅游交通需求与传统通勤交通需求有很大的差异，在进行旅游交通规划时，必须对旅游交通需求进行分析。从行为分析的角度，在对旅游交通行为进行调查分析的基础上，利用Logit模型，分别建立了全国和北京市的周末自驾车旅游出行行为模型。分析结果表明：收入是影响个体自驾车旅游出行的主要因素。
【关键词】旅游交通；交通行为；需求预测；非集计模型
【中图分类号】U491.1
【文献标识码】A

A Travel Behavior Model for Sightseeing Travel

GUAN Hongzhi1, SHAO Jie1, LI Yaru2, BAI Hongling2
(1.Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100022, China; 2. Research Institute of Highway Ministry of Communications, Beijing 100088, China)

Abstract: Driving demand is increasing dramatically with the increment of car-owners and development of tourism. There is great difference between sightseeing travel and commuting traffic concerning innate characteristics and affected factors. It is very necessary that demand analysis should be a part of sightseeing travel planning. The paper put the emphasis on the problem from the point of travel behavior analysis. And based on sightseeing traffic surveys, the models of driving behavior in China and Beijing were established by logit model. Finally we drew the conclusion that income is one of the crucial factors, which have influence on the driving demand.

Keywords: sightseeing travel; traffic behavior; demand forecasting; disaggregate model