文章编号：1672-5328（2005）01-0055-07

陈雪明
（美国北岭加州州立大学城市研究与规划系，美国北岭 91330）

摘要：卡车是城市地区的主要物流交通工具。卡车模拟在出行目的、卡车重量类型、货物种类、土地利用形式、模拟过程、预处理等多个方面同传统的四阶段交通需求模拟不同。卡车模型一般由出行发生、出行分布和出行分配这三个子模型组成。出行发生首先确定同土地利用和社会经济变量有关的卡车内部出行发生率，再使用交叉分类方法来确定各种不同类型的卡车内部出行发生量，而模型区内外之间的卡车出行发生量则根据物流调查数据来估算。出行分布的主要模型为重力模型，其模型结果通常运用调整因子来调整，出行分配将经过预处理后的出行量分配到公路网络上。洛杉矶卡车模型目前在全美卡车模型中居领先地位，CUBE CARGO是一个日益受到重视的物流交通预测软件，在洛杉矶地区获得了初步的成功。

关键词：物流；卡车；出行；预测；模型

Urban Truck Modeling in the U.S. Logistics Transportation

CHEN Xueming
(California State University, Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Northridge 91330，U.S.)

Abstract: Truck is the major urban logistics transportation mode. Truck modeling distinguishes itself from conventional four-step travel demand modeling in many aspects, such as trip purposes, truck gross vehicle weight classifications, commodity types, land use patterns, modeling process, and preprocessing. Generally speaking, a truck model includes three submodels of trip generation, trip distribution, and trip assignment. Trip generation first determines truck internal trip rates associated with land use and socioeconomic variables, then uses cross-classification methodology to estimate various types of truck internal trips. External trips with one trip end outside of the modeling area are estimated from the commodity flow data. Trip distribution is primarily undertaken by running a gravity model, the results from which are adjusted through different factoring procedures. Trip assignment assigns preprocessed trips to highway networks. At present, the Los Angeles truck model is among the leading truck models in the U.S. CUBE-CARGO is becoming an increasingly important logistics transportation forecasting software, meeting its early success in the Los Angeles area.

Keywords: logistics; truck; trip; forecasting; model