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《城市交通》杂志
双语出版
20190502-Deficiency of Classic Trip Distribution Models and Exploration of the New Theory
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Qin Peng, Xiao Liang, Chen Jiankai
(Shenzhen Urban Transport Planning Center. Ltd, Shenzhen Guangdong 518021, China)

Abstract: Due to the deficiencies in the classic trip distribution models, the Origin Destination (OD) matrices obtained from these models lack scientificity and their accuracy is still open to question. To solve this issue, it is necessary to explore and develop a new trip distribution theory and establish a scientific and reasonable trip distribution model. This paper analyzes the deficiencies of several trip distribution studies and classic trip distribution models, such as the Growth Factor Model and the Gravity Model, and proposes that the essence of trip distribution forecasting is to understand deeply the inherent logic among travelers, travel modes, origins and destinations, which are related to travelers' characteristics. The paper discusses the relationship among the key factors, including land use, travelers and travel modes, and explores the inherent relationship between these key factors and trip distribution. Based on the study above, the paper proposes a new trip distribution theory building on the key factors and a general idea for developing trip distribution forecasting models. Finally, the paper establishes a conceptual trip distribution model based on the new theory, and points out the necessity to promote the research on the forecasting of urban development and the travel behavior of different groups.

Keywords: transportation prediction; trip distribution; OD matrix; group attribute; transportation mode selection