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《城市交通》杂志
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20200303-Virus Spatiotemporal Diffusion Distribution and Control Based on Micro-Simulation Travel Model
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PAN Haixiao, CUI Yi
College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China

Abstract: With the development of social economy, people’s communication activities are increasingly frequent. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and other respiratory infectious diseases are closely related to people’s daily activities and travel behavior. It is necessary to study the spatiotemporal distribution of respiratory diseases in urban planning and management. Based on the travel survey data of a provincial capital city in Southwest China, this paper develops a micro travel model to simulate the dynamic transmission of viruses in both urban central area and metropolitan area. Due to the narrow space of public transit, the dense population and the high probability of passenger infection, the paper simulates the effect of restraining the transit transmission and taking precautions. The results show that these measures can effectively reduce the infection speed and spread range of the virus in the population, which leaves a longer window period for early virus control. The method discussed in the paper can help urban management departments to make accurate decisions in the early stage of the epidemic, which can also provide reference for future urban and rural planning on how to deal with public health emergency.

Keywords: transportation model; micro-simulation; travel behavior; MATSim; virus transmission