M. Beuthe^a,
B. Jourquin^a,
N. Urbain^a,
I. Lingemann^b,
B. Ubbels^c



Highlights

•Climate change impact on water levels is not strong enough to influence modal share.
•General economic conditions have a much greater influence on volumes and modal split.
•Exceptionally dry conditions could justify maintaining small vessels.



Keywords
Inland navigation; Multimodal network models; Climate change



Abstract
This paper measures the potential effects of low water levels on the Rhine and Danube navigation in the context of weather variability and a number of climate change scenarios. A long-term multimodal network transport analysis over the period 2005–2050 is presented; it analyzes the impact of changes on the water depth conditions on transport costs and the modal splits between three competing modes. The results indicate that the impact of climate change until 2050 should be limited.



Article Outline
1. Introduction
2. Effects of water level variations on waterway transport
3. Climate change impacts assessment for the Rhine market
4. Climate change impacts assessment for the Danube market
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References



Tables

Table 1. Effects of new infrastructures on the Rhine market (2005 matrixes).

Table 2. Simulations of the climate impacts on the Rhine market.

Table 3. Impacts of the new infrastructures on the use of vessels (Rhine).

Table 4. Climate impacts on the use of vessels (Rhine).

Table 5. Aggregate results of the climate impacts simulations (Danube, Hofkirchen's distributions).

Table 6. Climate impact on ships usage (Danube, Hofkirchen’s distributions).