文章编号：1672-5328（2011）04-0012-09

王志高¹，王江燕¹，何东全²
（1.宇恒可持续交通研究中心，北京 100004；2.美国能源基金会北京代表处，北京 100004）

摘要：为了探讨公交优先政策对CO2排放的影响及其敏感性，进行影响评估研究。首先探讨了城市公共交通与CO₂排放的关系，提出公共交通CO₂排放量的4个影响因素。对近年来公交优先政策的实施效果进行分析，推断其与CO₂排放存在的关联性。估算2000—2008年公共交通CO₂排放量，发现其与公交平均载客量呈反比、与平均出行距离呈正比；假设6种情境，计算不同能源结构、公交分担率提高比例情况下的CO₂减排量阈值，并对影响因素进行敏感性分析。在此基础上，探讨公交优先政策可能导致的CO₂排放削减的量级。最后，从节能减排的角度针对公交优先政策提出建议。

关键词：交通政策；公交优先；影响评估；CO2排放

中图分类号：U491.1⁺7

文献标识码：A

Impact of Transit Priority on CO₂ Emissions

WANG Zhi-gao¹, WANG Jiang-yan¹, HE Dong-quan²
(1.China Sustainable Transportation Center, Beijing 100004, China; 2.Energy Foundation Beijing Office, Beijing 100004, China)

Abstract：To investigate how transit priority policies affect CO₂ emissions, this paper conducts an impact assessment and sensitivity analysis. By discussing the relationship between urban public transit and CO₂ emissions, the paper presents four elements that influence CO₂ emissions of public transit system. Based on an evaluation of transit priority implemented in recent years, the paper discusses the relationship between the policies and CO₂ emissions. It is estimated that the amounts of CO₂ emissions from transit vehicles between 2000 and 2008 have a negative correlation with average passenger load and a positive correlation with average travel distance. The study calculates the CO₂ emission by different fuel structure and percentage increase in public transit shares for six proposed hypothetical scenarios. Based on the analysis results, the paper discusses the CO₂ emissions reduction possibly by transit priority. Finally, the paper suggests various public transit priorities polices from the perspective of energy conservation and emissions reduction.

Keywords：transportation policy; transit priority; impact assessment; CO₂ emissions