文章编号：1672-5328（2010）03-0017-06

梁倩玉，逄莹
（同济大学交通运输工程学院，上海201804）

摘要：常见的交通成本模型和特 征价格模型对数据要求较高，因 此，利用类比分析方法探讨预估新 兴轨道交通城市新建项目对周边 房地产价格的增值作用。首先分 析了房地产价格的影响因素，初选 7 个类比指标，结合相关性分析及 回归分析将人均GDP和人均消费 支出作为最终类比指标。以南京 市地铁项目为实例，详细介绍了类 比分析法的应用步骤，将南京与北 京、上海、深圳、成都几个城市进行 类比，得到南京市轨道交通对周边 房地产价格的增值效益值。结果 表明，与其他常用方法相比，类比 分析法普遍相对误差为18%以内， 且对数据要求较低，操作简单，特 别是对于轨道交通建设处于起步 阶段的城市，这一方法可发挥最大 的优越性。最后，提出类比分析法 的缺陷及在应用过程中的注意事项。

关键词：交通经济；轨道交通；类比 分析；房地产价格；经济发展水平

中图分类号：U231

文献标识码：A

Impact of Urban Rail Transit on Real Estate Price by Analogy Analysis

LIANG Qian-yu, PANG Ying
(School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China)

Abstract：Due to the fact that commonly used Travel Cost Model (TCM) and Hedonic Price Mode l (HPM) require more data, this paper investigates the effect of new rail transit lines on the price of adjacent real estate by analogy analysis. After studying the influential factors of real estate price the seven primary indices were selected for the analysis. Two analogy indices, GDP per person and average personal expending, were finally chosen based on correlation and regression analysis. Taking the rail transit construction in Nanjing as an example, the paper elaborates the application of analogy analysis method, and obtains the value-added benefits of rail transit in Nanjing by comparing with cases in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu City. The results show that compared with the commonly used methods, the analogy analysis method is easily applicable for cities in the initial stage of rail transit development, requires less data and can limit the error within 18%. Lastly, the author points out the application requirements and the potential weakness of the method.

Keywords：transportation economics; rail transit; Analogy Analysis; real estate price; level of economic development