文章编号：1672-5328（2009）01-0031-05

马小毅
（广州市交通规划研究所，广东 广州 510030）

摘要：轨道交通客流预测在工程可行性论证中发挥着重要作用。分析了目前国内轨道交通客流预测的现状和存在的问题。从战略和战术两个层面阐述了广州市轨道交通客流预测的应对方法。提出战略的核心是通过完善模型形成快速反应以主动适应城市规划的不确定性。战术层面从适应性、互动性、系统性和精细性4个方面系统地论述了广州市轨道交通客流预测的作法。最后，从人、财、物、机制等方面对改善客流预测模型运作提出了建议。

关键词：交通规划；轨道交通；客流预测；战略；战术

中图分类号：U491.1⁺4

文献标识码：A

Strategies and Scenarios for Rail Transit Passenger Forecasting: taking Guangzhou as an example

Ma Xiaoyi
(Transportation Planning Research Institute of Guangzhou, Guangzhou 510030, Guangdong, China)

Abstract：Passenger volumes forecasting plays an important role in the feasibility study of construction of rail transit systems. In regards of existing volumes forecasting of rail transit and their shortcomings in China, this paper elaborates Guangzhou’s countermeasures from two different levels: strategies and scenarios. The core strategies are to form fast reactions through modeling improvement as to be initiatively compatible with the uncertainty of urban planning. The paper illustrates how Guangzhou conducts volumes forecasting for rail transit projects from four aspects, i.e. adaptability, interaction, system, and preciseness. Finally, the paper proposes suggestions to deal with human, financial, material, and institutional impacts on passenger forecasting.

Keywords：transportation planning; rail transit; passenger volumes forecasting; strategy; tactics